The Breakdown:

Last week, we touched on the recent Home Price Index from CoreLogic which showed a monthly decrease in home appreciation while there was a 6.9% increase annually. CoreLogic is forecasting that we will likely see a slowed but still positive appreciation of around 3% this year. Keep in mind that, in an average year, a homeowner can expect to see between 3-5% appreciation. The much higher appreciation we've seen recently is not sustainable long-term and should not be expected to continue.

That being said, Zillow and Pulsenomics released their Home Price Expectation survey, which asks over 100 of the top economists in the country about their expectations of home appreciation over the next 5 years. The average response was a cumulative increase of 23%. This is right in line with the average annual gain of 3-5%.

Over 140 CEOs participated in a survey by The Conference Board which measures their confidence in both the current and expected conditions for their respective industries. The survey reported that 93% are making prepaprations for a brief recession in 2023 and 48% said that they are reducing hiring plans.

We are already seeing a tightening in the job market. The most recent report of unemployment claims by first-time filers increased to 196,000, while claims by those who continue to receive benefits after their initial claim rose to 1.688 million. As continuing claims have increased by more than 300,000 over the past 4 months, it seems to be harder for jobseekers to find employment after being let go.

This week we'll be taking a look at some key inflation, housing, and manufacturing data. January's Consumer and Producer Price Indexes, as well as the Housing Starts and Building Permit reports will be the major highlights. We'll also be taking a look a the NAHB Housing Market Index and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Stay tuned for the breakdown next week!

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